Global Shipping Faces Green Reckoning: IMO “Net-Zero Framework” to Reshape the Industry

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will put its “Net-Zero Framework” to a vote at a special session in October 2025. If adopted, the measure—widely described as the most stringent greenhouse-gas (GHG) rule ever imposed on world shipping—will enter into force in March 2027 and become mandatory on 1 January 2028, ushering in an era of compulsory carbon compliance for every ocean-going merchant fleet. Analysts warn the overhaul will re-write ship design, redraw operating patterns and ignite a new round of geopolitical friction over who pays for greener seas.

1. GHG-Fuel Intensity Standard (GFI)
   Vessels ≥ 5,000 gt must cut the carbon intensity of the energy they use each year. A two-tier target—baseline and direct—will apply; ships that miss the mark must buy “Remedial Units” (RUs), creating the world’s first global shipping carbon tax.
2. Economic Penalty Mechanism
   Fines levied on high-carbon fuels will flow into a newly created “IMO Net-Zero Fund” to finance green-marine projects in developing countries.
3. Technology-Neutral Incentives
   The rule offers equal credit to ammonia, methanol, hydrogen and any other low-carbon option, while also rewarding wind-assist, air-lubrication and hull-optimization technologies.

• Old ships head for the beach. Clarksons Research says roughly 30 % of the existing fleet—most vessels built before 2013 and lacking an EEDI efficiency rating—could be scrapped within five years.
• Newbuild price surge. Ships meeting EEDI Phase 3 (30 % more efficient than the 2006 baseline) and fitted for dual-fuel operation now cost 15-25 % more. Chinese and Korean yards report record orders for ammonia- and methanol-ready tonnage.
• Operating-cost reset. Owners must budget US $50-100 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent for RUs and re-optimize bunkering, routing and chartering. Mærsk has already committed to order only carbon-neutral-ready newbuilds.

• China backs the framework as a chance to leapfrog in green marine technology, though 40 % of its domestic fleet is old and will need rapid replacement.
• The EU, which already runs a regional shipping carbon market (EU ETS) and will enforce Fuel EU Maritime’s 2 % GHG-cut in 2025, wants the IMO rule to mirror its own.
• The United States, in an unusually blunt dissent, threatens to impose a “carbon-compliance surcharge” on flag states that support the text, arguing the measure could add US $5 billion a year to U.S. export bills and snarl supply chains.
• Oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE fear penalties on residual fuel will erode refinery demand and are lobbying for transition credits and longer phase-in periods.

• A coalition of 34 shipowners, led by Hapag-Lloyd, plus environmental NGOs rejects crop-based biofuels, warning they could accelerate Amazon deforestation; the group wants an immediate shift to green hydrogen-derived methanol and ammonia.
• Ammonia’s toxic, corrosive nature and the lack of bunkering infrastructure remain unsolved. DNV forecasts only 5 % of the world fleet will be ammonia-fuelled by 2030.
• Drewry calculates that 80 % of compliance costs will be passed to cargo owners, raising global freight rates by 12-15 % and potentially adding 0.3 percentage points to world inflation.