Domestic shipbuilding industry trends

Industry integration and enterprise development

On September 5, 2025, the global shipbuilding industry ushered in a historic moment: China Heavy Industry (601989.SH) officially delisted its A-shares, converting its shareholders' shares into China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) shares at a ratio of 1:0.1339. This marked the completion of the largest restructuring in the history of the A-share market and the largest merger in the global shipbuilding industry. Following the merger, China Shipbuilding not only inherited all of China Heavy Industry's assets, liabilities, and businesses, but also integrated high-quality assets such as Dalian Shipbuilding, Wuchang Shipbuilding, and Beihai Shipbuilding. The company also plans to work with Hudong-Zhonghua and Huangpu Wenchong to resolve competition within three years, ultimately establishing a comprehensive industry chain encompassing R&D and design, final assembly and construction, and supporting services.

Scale: The birth of a global shipbuilding giant

The integrated China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) has set new industry records with a double-hundred-billion-yuan scale: assets exceeding 400 billion yuan, annual revenue exceeding 130 billion yuan, and an order backlog accounting for 18% of the global total, making it the world's largest and most comprehensive listed shipbuilding company. This integration not only includes 30 million deadweight tons of civilian ship orders (valued at over 140 billion yuan) under China Heavy Industry, but also extends production schedules to the end of 2028, laying a solid foundation for long-term stable development.5。

A Quick Look at the Core Achievements of the Merger

Reaching the top in scale：Total assets of RMB 400 billion+, annual revenue of RMB 130 billion+, and global backlog accounted for 18%
Efficiency Leap: Net profit in the first half of the year after the merger increased by 108.59% year-on-year, and China Heavy Industry's gross profit margin increased by more than 5 percentage points in the first quarter
Structural upgrade: Mid- to high-end ship orders account for over 90%, with green ship types accounting for over half, and orders are scheduled until the end of 2028

Finance and Orders: Integration Unleashes Synergy

Financial data confirms the success of the integration: the combined entity's net profit surged 108.59% year-on-year in the first half of the year. China Heavy Industry also achieved impressive quarterly performance, with revenue reaching 12.216 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 20.12%) and net profit attributable to parent company shareholders reaching 519 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 281.99%) in the first quarter of 2025. Key drivers include a shortened civilian shipbuilding cycle, a year-on-year increase of over 20% in deliveries, and a significant increase in gross profit margin. The order structure further highlights product upgrades: mid- to high-end vessel orders account for over 90%, with green vessel types accounting for over half, encompassing high-tech categories such as LNG bunkering vessels and specialized vessels. Two 20,000 cubic meter LNG bunkering vessels, ordered in a joint venture with Tuowei Group and Denmark's Celsius Tankers, are a prime example.

Strategic significance: from resource integration to enhancing voice

This restructuring directly addresses industry pain points: by eliminating competition from Dalian Shipbuilding and other peers like Hudong-Zhonghua, it will centralize R&D resources and optimize production capacity, driving China's shipbuilding industry's transformation from a "scale leader" to a "technology leader." Simultaneously, industry synergies are accelerating: On September 4th, the 605th Research Institute of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSSC) and Jiangxi Jiangxin Shipbuilding signed a strategic cooperation agreement focusing on specialized shipbuilding; China Merchants Group and Sinopec also reached a framework cooperation agreement to establish a synergistic "shipbuilding, shipping, and energy" industry chain. This "integration + synergy" model not only consolidates China's global leadership but also provides a "Chinese solution" for increasing global shipbuilding industry concentration.

From delisting from the A-share market to the integration of hundreds of billions of assets, China Shipbuilding's "super merger" is reshaping the global shipbuilding landscape. Based on scale, guided by efficiency and supported by innovation, this industry giant with total assets exceeding 400 billion yuan is heading towards the new blue ocean of green and intelligent shipbuilding with more than 90% of mid-to-high-end orders.

New Orders and Delivery Highlights

This week, the global shipbuilding market once again witnessed the strong performance of Chinese shipbuilding companies, with new orders reachingCovering all categoriesThe delivery process has achieved breakthroughs in both efficiency and technology. According to the latest data, from September 1 to 7, 2025, global shipyards received orders for 38+27 new ships, all of which were undertaken by Chinese shipyards. These orders cover mainstream ship types such as bulk carriers, container ships, product tankers, and chemical tankers, demonstrating the absolute dominance of China's shipbuilding industry in the global market.

The distribution of specific orders shows a diverse landscape. In the bulk carrier sector, Zhejiang Zheyin Financial Leasing has placed a long-term lease agreement for two 63,500-dwt ultramax bulk carriers with Jiangsu Soho Innovation Technology Group. In the container ship market, Hong Kong shipowner K. Wah Shipping has made its first foray into newbuilding, placing an order for three plus one 4,800-TEU containerships at the Wuhu Shipyard. In the energy carrier sector, Greek shipowner Pleiades Shipping has placed an option order for two 73,000-dwt LR2 tankers, while London-based RFOcean has added a 6,600-dwt stainless steel cargo tanker to its existing order for seven at the Wuhu Shipyard. Notably, Hengli Heavy Industries received an order for two plus two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from a European shipowner on September 4th, further solidifying China's competitiveness in the high-value-added shipbuilding market.

There are many highlights in the delivery process.Efficiency and technology dual-wheel driveIt has become a core competitive advantage for Chinese shipyards. On September 10th, CSIC Chengxi Shipbuilding delivered the 82,600-ton bulk carrier "APOLLONIS," built for the Greek company NEDA, 122 days ahead of schedule. The vessel completed slipway loading and dock outfitting in just 92 days, setting a new construction cycle record for similar vessels despite persistent plum rains and high temperatures. Three days later, CSIC Chengxi delivered another success story, delivering the fourth 84,500-ton dry bulk carrier "CSPC LEO" for CITIC Financial Leasing and the 16th 62,000-ton heavy-lift multipurpose vessel "Anfu" for Bank of Communications Financial Leasing, bringing the total number of vessels delivered to 2025 to 19.

In terms of technological breakthroughs, COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry successfully completed the roll-on/roll-off launching of a 5,700-ton ship. The application of this technology in complex engineering scenarios has been highly recognized by the international industry, marking a new height for Chinese shipyards in modular shipbuilding. Meanwhile, Yangzi Xinfu Shipbuilding delivered the ninth 16,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel containership, the "MSC LINZIE," to MSC on September 12. Hudong Zhonghua delivered the world's first 24,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel containership, the "CMA CGM SEINE," built for CMA CGM, approximately six months ahead of schedule, continuing to lead the way in green ship technology innovation.

Chinese shipbuilders' performance in new orders and deliveries this week not only demonstrates their global leadership in terms of volume but also highlights their continued improvement in quality. From construction efficiency improvements resulting in deliveries 122 days ahead of schedule to technological breakthroughs in roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) technology for 5,700-ton hulls, China's shipbuilding industry is strengthening its global market influence through capacity upgrades across the entire supply chain.

Green Ship Technology Innovation

On September 12, 2025, the world's first alcohol-hydrogen electric-powered distribution vessel, the "Yuanchun 001," completed its inauguration ceremony at the Hangzhou Qianhang Shipyard, marking a new phase in the low-carbon transformation of inland waterway shipping, moving from technical concepts to practical engineering. The vessel, a 64 TEU distribution vessel with a deadweight of 1,500 tons, features an innovative power system design that exemplifies breakthroughs in green ship technology.

Power system: Methanol-lithium battery intelligent collaborative solution

"Yuanchun 001" adoptsDual-energy power architectureIt is equipped with two 280 kW methanol generators and two 258.0 kWh lithium battery packs (total power 516.0 kWh), and realizes intelligent grid connection through DC bus frequency conversion electronic control equipment, driving two 150 kW propulsion motors. Its core innovation lies inDC networking technologyThis technology has achieved three major breakthroughs: the battery charging efficiency has been increased to more than 96%, significantly reducing energy consumption losses caused by load fluctuations; the modular design avoids the risk of system paralysis caused by single point failures; and the battery cycle life is extended by more than 50% compared to pure electric ships.

Four intelligent operating modes are designed for ship operation to achieve full-scenario energy optimization:

Hybrid mode：Methanol unit and lithium battery work together, lithium battery plays the role of "peak shaving and valley filling", smoothing the host load fluctuation
Generator mode: During long-distance stable navigation, the methanol unit operates alone to provide continuous power
Pure electric mode: When entering environmentally sensitive areas such as port areas, switch to battery power to achieve zero emissions
Shore power charging mode：Supplementing electricity through shore power when docking at the terminal to reduce carbon emissions from port operations

Performance breakthrough: dual advantages in energy consumption and battery life

The measured data shows that the energy consumption per kilometer of "Yuanchun 001" is only 5.3L, which is lower than that of the diesel-powered ships of the same type.Energy consumption costs reduced by more than 42%, with a cruising range of nearly 1,500 kilometers. In terms of economic efficiency, after receiving national subsidies for new energy vessels, the ship's payback period is 3-5 years shorter than that of pure electric vessels, resolving the long-standing environmental-cost trade-off faced by green ships.

Technological milestone: This ship is the first to realize the commercial application of methanol fuel in an inland distribution ship. Its power system integration solution provides a replicable "methanol + lithium battery" technology template for small and medium-sized ships, promoting the extension of methanol fuel from large ocean-going ships to inland feeder ships.

Industry Demonstration: A Turning Point for Large-Scale Application of Methanol Fuel

The launch of "Yuanchun 001" marks the beginning of the green transformation of inland waterway shipping.Practical stagePreviously, methanol-powered ships were mostly concentrated in large ocean-going container ships (such as the 14 18,500 TEU methanol dual-fuel ships ordered by Orient Overseas Container Line). However, this ship, through its modular power design, proves the technical feasibility and economic rationality of methanol fuel in small and medium-sized inland vessels.

Its demonstration effect is reflected in three aspects: First, it validated the adaptability of methanol fuel in complex inland waterway conditions, providing a reference for ship retrofits on prime waterways like the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers; second, the cost control experience of DC networking technology provides a reference for reducing retrofit costs for similar ships; and third, the balanced model of policy subsidies and market benefits is accelerating industry acceptance of methanol fuel. With the vessel's entry into operation, it is expected to drive domestic shipbuilders to launch more methanol-powered inland waterway vessels in 2026-2027, promote the development of methanol bunkering infrastructure, and form a green shipping ecosystem with a coordinated "ship-port-oil" network.

International Shipbuilding Industry Trends

Technological breakthroughs and innovative applications

Ship propulsion technology is undergoing a critical transition from incremental optimization to disruptive change.Breakthrough in nuclear power technology for large commercial shipsandLarge-scale application of dual-fuel power systemsThese have become the two most eye-catching directions this week. The former marks a historic step for the shipping industry towards "zero-emission long-range navigation", while the latter consolidates the commercialization path for the transition from traditional energy to low-carbon.

Milestone breakthrough in nuclear-powered shipping

Jointly developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and Samsung Heavy Industries174,000 cubic meter nuclear-powered LNG carrierWon at Gastech 2025 exhibition on September 9Approval in Principle (AiP)This development provides a new solution for decarbonizing global shipping.100 MW thermal power small modular molten salt reactor (SMR)The core advantage lies inNo need to change fuel throughout the entire life cycleThis fundamentally breaks the reliance of traditional ships on port refueling. The development of deep-sea LNG resources, driven by the need for ultra-long-distance transportation (such as the Arctic route and large-scale transoceanic LNG transport), has created an urgent need for long-range propulsion. South Korea, through the localization of SMR technology, is attempting to seize the lead in nuclear propulsion for ships. This AiP certification signifies that the technology has passed authoritative third-party verification in key areas such as safety design and system integration, laying the foundation for subsequent ship construction.

The mainstreaming of dual-fuel power

At a time when nuclear power technology is still in the concept verification stage,LNG and methanol dual-fuel power systemIt has become the "standard choice" in the international shipbuilding market. Mediterranean Shipping Company's 21700TEU and 22000TEU series container ships, CMA CGM Group's 18000TEU ships and the planned 21000-24000TEU ultra-large ships all useLNG dual-fuel power; The 16,000TEU ship of Ocean Network Shipping (ONE) of Japan also continues this route.Methanol dual fuelThe transitional option of zero-carbon fuel is also rapidly being implemented. Orient Overseas Container Line's 18,500 TEU vessel uses this technology, marking the evolution of dual-fuel propulsion from a single LNG-dominated approach to multi-fuel compatibility. The widespread adoption of this technology not only responds to the IMO's new carbon intensity regulations but also reduces operational risks for shipowners through a mature supply chain.

Diversified application of green technology

In addition to the power system innovation, a series ofEnergy-saving and consumption-reducing technologiesHas entered the commercialization stage:

Shaft generator：By converting propulsion shaft power into ship electricity, it reduces dependence on auxiliary engines and reduces fuel consumption2%-5%, the investment payback period is 2-3 years;
Air Lubrication System (ALS)：Injecting a bubble layer under the hull to reduce friction resistance, fuel savings can reach5%-10%, becoming a popular option for dry dock conversion;
Hydrogen energy technology trends: Focus on reducing battery costs, improving hydrogen storage safety and efficient hydrogen production technology to lay the foundation for future "hydrogen fuel power".

These technologies complement dual-fuel power, and together constitute the shipping industry's technical roadmap of "short-term carbon reduction - medium-term substitution - long-term zero carbon".

New landscape of global technological competition

Current innovation in ship propulsion technology presents **"two-pronged parallel development"Characteristics: Countries represented by South Korea are betting on cutting-edge technologies such as nuclear power, trying toThe miniaturization of SMRs and the long-life fuel cycle are reshaping industry rules; while Europe, China, and other countries are focusing on iterative optimization of dual-fuel systems (such as improving LNG propulsion efficiency and methanol fuel compatibility) and energy-saving upgrades for existing ships. This differentiated competition will further diverge between technology paths: nuclear power may lead breakthroughs in specific scenarios such as ultra-large LNG carriers and polar research vessels, while dual-fuel propulsion will maintain its dominance in general applications such as container ships and bulk carriers, ultimately forming a global shipping power landscape where multiple technology paths coexist.

Global Orders and Market Structure

In the third quarter of 2025, the global shipbuilding market is facing a deepening downturn. Data shows that global new ship orders fell 54% year-on-year in the third quarter, with August alone seeing a sharp 65% year-on-year drop and an 18% month-on-month decrease, exerting significant downward pressure on the market. However, amidst this overall sluggish market, China and South Korea, two major shipbuilding powerhouses, have pursued differentiated development paths, reflecting the profound transformation of the global shipbuilding industry from "scale competition" to "value competition."

Chinese shipyards maintain their solid position, winning by volume. Despite a market downturn, China still leads the world in new ship orders in the third quarter, with a 52% share. From September 1 to 7, 2025, China captured all new ship orders globally. This advantage stems from long-term capacity accumulation: By 2024, Chinese shipbuilders accounted for 70% of the global market share with 46.45 million corrected gross tons (CGT) in orders, and the order backlog extends to the end of 2028, demonstrating strong market resilience.

In stark contrast, South Korea's high-end strategy of "winning by quality" is in sharp contrast. By the first half of 2025, South Korean shipbuilding companies' global market share will soar to 30%, up from 17% in 2024. Leading companies such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Marine & Offshore continue to focus on high-value-added shipbuilding. For example, on September 8, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering signed a contract with Asia Shipping Company for the construction of two ultra-large container ships, totaling 409.5 billion won, with delivery scheduled for 2028. Hanwha Marine & Offshore is actively expanding into the offshore equipment market by establishing subsidiaries in India and Brazil. It is currently bidding for Petrobras' FPSO project and plans to build a shipyard in Rio de Janeiro state with a capacity of 7,000 people.

Core characteristics of market pattern evolution

China: Consolidating the basic market with scale advantages, the company has scheduled orders until the end of 2028 and secured all new ship orders worldwide by early September 2025, demonstrating the stability of the industry chain.
South Korea: Breaking into the high-end market with technological premium, the company aims to double its market share to 30% in the first half of 2025. Emerging market layout (India, Brazil offshore engineering) and high-value orders (ultra-large container ships, LNG carriers) will become growth engines.
Trend reversalThe global shipbuilding industry has entered a new stage of "value competition" from "market share competition", with technological barriers and deep cultivation of regional markets becoming key variables.

This competitive landscape characterized by "quantity and quality differentiation" essentially reflects the structural transformation of the global shipbuilding industry. Leveraging its comprehensive industrial chain and production capacity advantages, China has established an unbreakable scale barrier in traditional shipbuilding. South Korea, through technological research and development and expansion into emerging markets, has continuously made breakthroughs in high-end sectors such as LNG carriers, ultra-large container ships, and offshore equipment. As demonstrated by Qatar Energy's "100 Ship Plan," China's Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Company has received orders for 36 LNG carriers, while South Korea's three major shipbuilders have combined for 92. Direct competition between the two sides in high-value-added sectors has become increasingly fierce. In the future, as the green transformation of the shipping market accelerates, this dual-track competition model of "scale and value in parallel" may dominate the next stage of development in the global shipbuilding industry.

The decline in global new ship orders and the strategic adjustments of major shipbuilding countries have together outlined the clear outline of the industry's transformation period: the era of simply pursuing market share is coming to an end, and "value competition" centered on technological innovation, regional development, and green ships will become the key force determining the shipbuilding industry's landscape in the next decade.

Policies, regulations and environmental protection trends

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is taking a strong stance in reshaping the green future of global shipping. In April 2025, the "IMO net-zero framework," approved by MEPC 83, was officially incorporated into Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL). This regulation, covering 97% of the world's merchant ships, explicitly mandates a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity from ships by 2035, reaching 65% by 2040, and ultimately achieving net-zero emissions around 2050, based on a 2008 baseline. The framework includes two key components: a global fuel carbon intensity standard for ships over 5,000 gross tonnage (GT), which account for 85% of CO₂ emissions from international shipping; and an economic mechanism for purchasing remediation units for excess emissions. Funds will be used to reward low-emission ships and support technological upgrades in developing countries. The complete set of rules will officially take effect in 2027.

The IMO's environmental tightening grip doesn't stop there. Starting May 1, 2025, the Mediterranean Sea officially became a sulfur oxide (SOx) Emission Control Area (ECA), requiring ships to limit fuel sulfur content to below 0.10% or be equipped with exhaust gas cleaning systems (EGCS), a move that will increase fuel costs by 10%-15% in the short term. Amendments to MARPOL Annex VI, which came into effect on August 1 of the same year, strengthened bunker delivery note (BDN) requirements for gas-fueled ships and mandated that steam-to-diesel engine conversions comply with the latest NOx emissions regulations. Even more stringent, starting November 2025, newly built ships' selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems must comply with the latest IMO guidelines, and existing ships must complete upgrades by May 2026. This marks a transition from voluntary ship emissions reduction to mandatory compliance.

Faced with regulatory pressure, companies are accelerating the divergence of their technological approaches. South Korean shipbuilders are demonstrating a representative approach: on the one hand, they are targeting short-term emissions reductions by vigorously promoting the commercialization of ammonia fuel technology to meet transitional regulations before 2030. On the other hand, with an eye on long-term zero-carbon goals, companies like Samsung Heavy Industries have partnered with the United States to develop small modular reactor (SMR) systems for ships, attempting to fundamentally reshape the logic of ship propulsion through clean energy substitution. This "dual-track" strategy aligns with the phased nature of IMO regulations—2035 will mark a watershed for the industry, when operating costs for conventional fuel vessels are expected to exceed those for alternative fuels like LNG and methanol. To achieve compliance, the proportion of alternative fuel vessels must increase to 50%.

Industry reshuffle signals have emergedIMO data indicates that starting in 2025, ships rated D/E on the Carbon Intensity Index (CII) for three consecutive years will be required to submit mandatory corrective action plans. DNV predicts that over 40% of the global fleet could face penalties if equipment upgrades are not implemented. Meanwhile, regional policies such as the EU's FuelEU maritime regulations and the California Port Emissions Control Strategy are increasingly driving shipowners to accelerate the retirement of older vessels. In this policy-driven green revolution, companies that master core technologies such as ammonia fuel, hydrogen fuel cells, and carbon capture are leveraging their technological advantages to seize opportunities in this new market.

Notably, environmental regulations have been extended to the entire lifecycle of ships. The Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships, which came into effect in June 2025, requires new ships to be equipped with an Inventory of Hazardous Materials (IHM). Existing ships over 5,000 gross tonnage must complete certification by 2030. This is expected to eliminate 30% of non-compliant dismantling yards and increase dismantling costs per ship by 15%-20%. Full-chain supervision from construction to dismantling is forcing the shipbuilding industry to shift from competition based on scale to competition based on green technology. The speed and depth of this transformation will directly determine the reshuffle of the global shipping landscape over the next decade.

Industry trends and international competition landscape

Core Directions of Green Transformation

The green transformation of the global shipbuilding industry is showing the distinctive feature of "multiple technologies in parallel". Different countries choose differentiated paths based on technological maturity, and the strict laws and regulations of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have become the core driving force to accelerate this process.

China has demonstrated strong industrialization capabilities in technology implementation. By 2024, China's green ship orders accounted for 78.5% of global alternative fuel orders. In the first half of 2025, green ship types generally accounted for over 35% of new orders received by major shipbuilders, with some leading companies exceeding 50%. In terms of technological breakthroughs, China has achieved international leadership in methanol dual-fuel engines and ammonia fuel supply systems. The methanol dual-fuel engine has been certified by international classification societies, and the ammonia fuel supply system has received the world's first test certificate. Compared to traditional diesel ships, alcohol-hydrogen electric ships can reduce PM emissions by 98% and nitrogen oxides by 82%, while increasing energy efficiency by over 30%.

South Korea, on the other hand, focuses on developing cutting-edge technologies. Samsung Heavy Industries' conceptual design for a 174,000-cubic-meter nuclear-powered LNG carrier recently received AiP certification, demonstrating the feasibility of small modular molten salt reactors (SMRs) for zero-carbon ship propulsion and paving a new path for the commercialization of nuclear-powered ships. This divergence in technological approaches has led to a global competitive landscape in which China focuses on practical applications while South Korea prepares for future technologies.

Among the current mainstream technology paths, dual-fuel propulsion (LNG and methanol) has become a core option during the transition phase. Almost all new orders from major shipping companies utilize dual-fuel propulsion designs, and green vessel types already account for nearly 60% of China Heavy Industry's backlog. However, in the long term, competition for zero-carbon fuels is gradually shifting to hydrogen and ammonia. Green methanol, due to its advantages such as convenient liquid storage and transportation and low infrastructure modification costs, has been recognized by Longspur Research as "one of the best green marine fuel options." The deployment of low-carbon ammonia capacity has become a key initiative for the shipping industry. While hydrogen energy offers significant environmental benefits, challenges remain regarding the cost of hydrogen fuel cells and the safety of hydrogen storage and transportation.

The forced impact of IMO regulations is particularly crucial. The global net-zero emissions regulations for shipping, reinforced by the MEPC 83 meeting in April 2025, combine mandatory emission reduction targets with a greenhouse gas pricing mechanism, with implementation expected to take effect in 2027. This means that nearly half of the existing fleet will need to be retrofitted or updated to meet the 2030 target. Measures such as the expansion of the Emission Control Area (ECA) to the Mediterranean and the tightening of sulfur emission limits are forcing shipowners and shipyards to accelerate technological innovation. The proportion of alternative fuel vessels is expected to increase rapidly over the next five years.

Focus of technological competitionFuel storage and transportation (such as safe hydrogen storage and methanol cost control), engine efficiency optimization, and full lifecycle carbon footprint traceability will be key areas of technological competition over the next five years. Currently, dual-fuel propulsion (LNG and methanol) remains the mainstream choice, but a long-term transition to zero-carbon fuels such as ammonia and hydrogen is necessary.

In this transformation, China's advantages in the large-scale application of mature technologies complement South Korea's layout in the exploration of cutting-edge technologies, and the "countdown effect" of IMO regulations ensures that the global shipbuilding industry accelerates towards the goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

Evolution of International Competition Strategies

The global shipbuilding industry is undergoing a new round of strategic restructuring. China, South Korea and the United States have formed differentiated competitive paths based on their own industrial endowments, and future industry competition will be upgraded toScale, technology and policyA three-dimensional contest.

China: Scale and ecological advantages driven by integration

China throughDeep industry integrationThe 2024 completion of the "North-South Shipbuilding Merger" (CSSC absorbing CSIC) will make China State Shipbuilding Corporation a global shipbuilding giant, with a year-on-year surge in orders in the first half of 2025.150%, the order backlog has been scheduled to 2028, of whichMore than 60% comes from overseas marketsUnder the scale effect, China's shipbuilding industry has formedControl over the entire industry chainIn 2024, the volume of completed projects, new orders and orders in hand will account for 3.3% of the global total in terms of deadweight tonnage.57.01%、76.96%、66.54%In the first week of September 2025, it won all the new ship orders in the world (38+27 ships).

At the same time, China's innovationMade in China + Chinese Finance"Model strengthens competitiveness: The Seaspan project implements cross-border RMB settlement, and financial institutions such as ICBC Leasing provide customized financing solutions, forming a closed loop of "shipbuilding-financing-operation." Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. won 36 LNG carrier orders in Qatar's "100 Ship Plan," surpassing the combined total of South Korea's three largest shipbuilders and marking a breakthrough for China in the high-end shipbuilding sector.

South Korea: Technological barriers and global production capacity layout

South Korean shipbuildersTechnological innovationTo consolidate their high-end market barriers, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries and others have mastered the core technology of membrane LNG carriers through cooperation with GTT, monopolizing over 70% of the world's high-end LNG carrier orders, and the order delivery cycle has been extended to4+ yearsAt the same time, South Korea acceleratedOverseas capacity expansion：HD Korea Shipbuilding & Ocean Leasing's Subic shipyard in the Philippines plans to invest US$550 million to increase its annual production capacity from 1.3 million deadweight tons to2.5 million deadweight tons, deepening its Southeast Asian layout; Hanwha Marine alsoCapital + Technology + Orders" model to enter the US market, invested US$5 billion to upgrade the Philadelphia Shipyard into an intelligent automation base, with an annual production target of 20 ships. At the same time, it established 8 overseas legal entities in Singapore, the United Kingdom and other countries to expand the offshore equipment market.

It is worth noting that South Korea isMilitary cooperation binds geopolitical resourcesSamsung Heavy Industries signed a naval support vessel maintenance agreement with Vigor Marine of the United States. The three major shipbuilders have entered the US Navy MRO market in exchange for policy support for the local shipbuilding industry.

United States: Geopolitical cooperation makes up for production capacity shortcomings

American relianceThe alliance system restructures local shipbuilding capabilities, jointly promote the "Indo-Pacific Shipbuilding Partnership" with Japan and South Korea, and South Korea has pledged to invest$150 billionHelping the United States rebuild its shipbuilding industry. Hanwha Marine's Philadelphia shipyard project has become a model of cooperation - the project not only increases the production capacity of US military and commercial ships, but also precisely meets the US energy export strategy and naval modernization needs, and has received federal subsidies and orders. This "Policy for production capacity"Model" enables the United States to influence the global competitive landscape through means such as technical standard setting and market access restrictions despite the hollowing out of its domestic shipbuilding industry.

Future Competition: Three Dimensions of Competition and China's Response

The global shipbuilding industry is entering aScale barriers × technological depth × policy toolsChina needs to make breakthroughs in three aspects: First,64.9% of global backlog ordersWhile taking advantage of the situation, China should accelerate the research and development of "bottleneck" technologies such as LNG ship invar welding and nuclear-powered ships, and narrow the gap with South Korea in high-end ship types; secondly, it should be wary of the US "small yard, high wall" strategy that cuts into the supply chain, and promote the international standard dominance of green ship technology (such as methanol power and hydrogen fuel); thirdly, it should learn from South Korea's overseas layout experience, and reduce the impact of geopolitics on order stability by jointly building "Belt and Road" shipyards and exporting digital shipbuilding technology.

Core Competitive Inspiration：The “scale dividend” of China’s shipbuilding industry is facing the double squeeze of South Korea’s “technology premium” and the United States’ “geopolitical leverage”.68.3% market share of new ordersOnly by transforming it into the right to speak on technical standards can we consolidate our advantages in the new round of industrial transformation.

Market prospects and challenges

The current global shipbuilding market presents a complex situation of "opportunities and challenges coexisting", and the industry is at a critical stage where traditional cyclical resilience and transformation pressure are intertwined.

The certainty of high prosperity supports

In terms of prospects, the market demand side still maintains strong momentum. In the first half of 2025, the new orders for container ships will reach1.92 million TEUsThis figure is twice the average of the past decade, reflecting the urgent need for new shipping capacity in the shipping market. At the same time, the scale of the global maritime industry is expected to exceed$2 trillion, the industry cake continues to expand.

The tight supply capacity has become the core factor supporting the industry's prosperity. Huayuan Securities predicts that the tight supply of global shipbuilding capacity may continue until 2035. Currently, the order schedule of China's mainstream shipyards has generally reached2028The delivery cycle of some high-end ship types has even been extended to 2029. This "slipway shortage" directly drives new ship prices to remain high, bringing stable performance expectations to leading companies.

Structural opportunities are also worth noting. The aging of the global fleet is becoming increasingly prominent, with a large number of ships over 20 years old facing mandatory renewal. Coupled with environmental policies such as the IMO Net Zero Framework, the demand for green ships is accelerating. In the sub-sector, the FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) market has performed well, and Hanwha Marine expects its scale to increase from its current level to$12 billionIncreased to 2029$18 billionBy 2030, global orders may reach 83 ships, and deep-sea resource development will become a new growth pole.

Risk warning under multiple challenges

However, behind the prosperity, the industry's hidden worries cannot be ignored. The most prominent risk comes fromExcess capacity pressureThe current container ship orders account for a proportion of the existing fleet31.7%Shipping consultancy Linerlytica warns that this level could replicate the decade of oversupply that followed the 2004-2009 ordering boom, and predicts the supply-demand imbalance will persist until 2029. Xeneta data provides a more direct illustration: the global fleet size index has reached 145 points (2019 = 100), while the demand index is only 113 points (even after accounting for adjustments such as those around the Cape of Good Hope, it is still only 130 points), indicating a widening gap between capacity growth and demand growth.

The cooling trend in the order market has also attracted attention. Since the beginning of 2025, the global new ship orders have only been 55, a significant drop from 92 in the same period last year.40%In the third quarter, global new ship orders declined year-on-year.54%This is partly due to the shortage of slipway resources at large shipyards, and partly due to the backlog of existing orders due in 2023-2024. The pressure on shipyard production capacity has gradually shifted from "tight" to "structural mismatch."

Geopolitical and policy uncertainties are further exacerbating industry volatility. The impact of the US Section 301 investigation into China's shipbuilding industry remains unclear. Redirection of global trade routes (such as around the Cape of Good Hope following the Red Sea crisis) has not only increased shipping costs but also altered shipowners' expectations regarding vessel size and configuration. The environmental transition presents another challenge: While the IMO's net-zero framework sets clear emission reduction targets, regulatory gaps remain in key areas, such as infrastructure development for zero-carbon fuel supply chains (such as ammonia and hydrogen) and lifecycle emission calculation methods. Shipowners face uncertainty regarding both technology selection and investment returns.

Core contradictions in the industry: The current market is facing a triple game of "short-term order resilience and long-term overcapacity", "decline of traditional energy ships and immaturity of new energy technologies", and "capacity expansion of leading enterprises and survival pressure of medium and small shipyards". This will accelerate the concentration of industry resources to leading enterprises with technological reserves and production capacity advantages.

Overall, the global shipbuilding industry will maintainHigh prosperity and high differentiationGoldman Sachs and other institutions predict that the industry may enter a long-term upward cycle lasting until 2032, driven by environmental regulations, an aging fleet, and trade growth. However, the gap between leading companies and medium-sized shipyards will further widen. For companies, optimizing supply chain layout to cope with geopolitical risks, flexibly adjusting order structures (such as increasing the proportion of green ships and deep-sea engineering equipment), and increasing investment in low-carbon technology research and development will become the key to navigating the cycle.

Global Shipbuilding Industry Weekly Report from September 7 - 13, 2025